Spread: OL Lyonnes (-1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold OL Lyonnes (50%) · OL Lyonnes at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
OL Lyonnes
4
OL Lyonnes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$10.16
74.1¢ → 71¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOL Lyonnes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | OL Lyonnesavg 74.4¢ | $896.79 | $884.96 | -$11.83 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 72.7¢ | $753.41 | $582.68 | +$16.26 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
| └ OL Lyonnes leg | OL Lyonnesavg 72.7¢ | $359.93 | $354 | -$5.16 | |
| └ Juventus FC leg | Juventus FCavg 25.8¢ | $207.27 | $228.68 | +$21.42 | |
SE sentrio | OL Lyonnesavg 73¢ | $204.54 | $203.28 | -$1.25 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Juventus FCavg 26.3¢ | $106.19 | $106.79 | +$0.61 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 27.9¢ | $15.74 | $18.06 | +$2.32 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
Invested
$896.79
Value
$884.96
PnL
-$11.83
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$753.41
Value
$582.68
PnL
+$16.26
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Both legs:
Invested
$204.54
Value
$203.28
PnL
-$1.25
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$106.19
Value
$106.79
PnL
+$0.61
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$15.74
Value
$18.06
PnL
+$2.32
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.