Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-11-11?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 87¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 11

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$366.76

Combined PnL

$2.72

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$246.44

Total Shares285

Combined PnL-$1.42

No3 traders

Total Value$120.33

Total Shares892

Combined PnL+$4.14

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 87¢	$171.27	$170.29	-$0.98	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 13¢	$112.36	$117.09	+$4.73	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$76.59	$76.15	-$0.44	28% 317-800 (1117)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 13.7¢	$3.25	$3.08	-$0.17	35% 279-508 (787)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$8.98	$0.15	-$0.42	51% 354-335 (689)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$171.27

Value

$170.29

PnL

-$0.98

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$112.36

Value

$117.09

PnL

+$4.73

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.59

Value

$76.15

PnL

-$0.44

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.17

Record

35%

279-508 (787)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$8.98

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.42

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.