Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$1.07

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 95.3¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,892

Combined PnL-$2.8

Yes1 trader

Total Value$17.67

Total Shares361

Combined PnL+$1.73

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 95.1¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0	41% 113-161 (274)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 95.6¢	$607.6	$603.77	-$3.83	28% 275-716 (991)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.6¢	$534.17	$535.02	+$0.85	48% 190-206 (396)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.5¢	$147.35	$148.05	+$0.7	28% 279-704 (983)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 96¢	$70.08	$69.75	-$0.33	28% 279-730 (1009)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$29.44	$29.29	-$0.15	28% 285-731 (1016)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$15.94	$17.67	+$1.73	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$16.45	$16.4	-$0.04	51% 300-292 (592)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,248.17

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

113-161 (274)

LightParadox

Invested

$607.6

Value

$603.77

PnL

-$3.83

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

SnakeBall

Invested

$534.17

Value

$535.02

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

MadridTime

Invested

$147.35

Value

$148.05

PnL

+$0.7

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$70.08

Value

$69.75

PnL

-$0.33

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$29.44

Value

$29.29

PnL

-$0.15

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.94

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.