Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

OL Lyonnes leading at halftime?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 30¢ · $123 held · ends Nov 11

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$123.3

Combined PnL

-$10.23

Smart Money Entry

30.3¢ → 29.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$119.97

Total Shares428

Combined PnL-$10.06

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.33

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.17

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$86.47	$78.1	-$8.37	31% 390-873 (1263)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$30.43	$29.38	-$1.05	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 29.4¢	$11.24	$10.7	-$0.54	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.33	-$0.17	30% 380-877 (1257)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.4	-$0.1	38% 352-584 (936)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$0.39	$0.39	+$0	52% 464-433 (897)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$86.47

Value

$78.1

PnL

-$8.37

Record

31%

390-873 (1263)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$30.43

Value

$29.38

PnL

-$1.05

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$11.24

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.54

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.17

Record

30%

380-877 (1257)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.