Exact Score: Juventus FC 0 - 3 OL Lyonnes?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $377 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$377.1
$0.67
88.9¢ → 88¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 89¢ | $283.91 | $280.72 | -$3.19 | 28% 317-800 (1117) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $44.5 | +$0 | 29% 315-788 (1103) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $24.09 | $26.28 | +$2.19 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $16.5 | $18 | +$1.5 | 51% 354-335 (689) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.43 | $7.6 | +$0.17 | 48% 231-247 (478) |
Invested
$283.91
Value
$280.72
PnL
-$3.19
Record
28%
317-800 (1117)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
315-788 (1103)
Invested
$24.09
Value
$26.28
PnL
+$2.19
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$16.5
Value
$18
PnL
+$1.5
Record
51%
354-335 (689)
Invested
$7.43
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.17
Record
48%
231-247 (478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.