Exact Score: Juventus FC 0 - 0 OL Lyonnes?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.3K
$16.78
98.7¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.7¢ | $658.06 | $665.72 | +$7.66 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 98.7¢ | $361.03 | $371.2 | +$10.17 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 98.9¢ | $180 | $175.99 | -$4 | 31% 388-857 (1245) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $39.15 | $39.97 | +$0.82 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $19.67 | $20.33 | +$0.66 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.68 | $2.15 | +$1.47 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
Invested
$658.06
Value
$665.72
PnL
+$7.66
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$361.03
Value
$371.2
PnL
+$10.17
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$180
Value
$175.99
PnL
-$4
Record
31%
388-857 (1245)
Invested
$39.15
Value
$39.97
PnL
+$0.82
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$19.67
Value
$20.33
PnL
+$0.66
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$1.47
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.