Will Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $332 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$331.93
-$1.38
91.9¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92¢ | $230.24 | $226.58 | -$3.66 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $87.74 | $88.22 | +$0.48 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $10.97 | $9.99 | +$0.25 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $3.84 | $4.76 | +$0.92 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.75 | $2.38 | +$0.63 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
Invested
$230.24
Value
$226.58
PnL
-$3.66
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$87.74
Value
$88.22
PnL
+$0.48
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.92
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.63
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.