Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 53¢ · $272 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$272.35
$2.09
52.8¢ → 53¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $111.63 | $107.7 | +$1.07 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.2¢ | $100.3 | $101.85 | +$1.55 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $49.32 | $48.68 | -$0.64 | 29% 307-750 (1057) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $8.72 | $8.72 | +$0 | 28% 305-773 (1078) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $5.4 | +$0.1 | 35% 266-490 (756) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$111.63
Value
$107.7
PnL
+$1.07
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$100.3
Value
$101.85
PnL
+$1.55
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$49.32
Value
$48.68
PnL
-$0.64
Record
29%
307-750 (1057)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$8.72
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
305-773 (1078)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
35%
266-490 (756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.