Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-11-10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 72¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$95.44
$0.24
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 71.4¢ | $71.68 | $71.76 | +$0.08 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $12.07 | $12.16 | +$0.08 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $7.57 | $7.62 | +$0.05 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 28.5¢ | $5.36 | $2.8 | -$0 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $1.09 | $1.11 | +$0.02 | 16% 105-569 (674) |
Invested
$71.68
Value
$71.76
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$12.16
PnL
+$0.08
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$7.57
Value
$7.62
PnL
+$0.05
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.36
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0.02
Record
16%
105-569 (674)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.