Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-10?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 87¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 10

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$275.44

Combined PnL

$2.15

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 86.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$273.83

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$1.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.61

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0.38

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 86¢	$98.27	$99.41	+$1.14	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 87¢	$79.07	$78.62	-$0.45	24% 204-649 (853)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 86¢	$70.35	$71.17	+$0.82	43% 78-102 (180)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 85¢	$12.21	$12.55	+$0.33	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 87¢	$12.16	$12.09	-$0.07	24% 208-644 (852)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.63	$1.61	+$0.38	48% 220-236 (456)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$98.27

Value

$99.41

PnL

+$1.14

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$79.07

Value

$78.62

PnL

-$0.45

Record

24%

204-649 (853)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$70.35

Value

$71.17

PnL

+$0.82

Record

43%

78-102 (180)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$12.09

PnL

-$0.07

Record

24%

208-644 (852)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.