Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Manchester City WFC end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 85¢ · $691 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$691.06
-$0.05
85¢ → 85¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 85¢ | $541.53 | $541.53 | +$0 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $94.49 | $94.49 | +$0 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $49.14 | $49.14 | -$0 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $5.15 | $5.15 | -$0 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.8 | $0.75 | -$0.05 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
Invested
$541.53
Value
$541.53
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$94.49
Value
$94.49
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$49.14
Value
$49.14
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.