FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 5.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 73¢ · $698 held · ended Nov 12

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$698.33

Combined PnL

-$81.55

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 73¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$668.9

Total Shares888

Combined PnL-$37.08

Over3 traders

Total Value$29.42

Total Shares327

Combined PnL-$44.47

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 77.4¢	$337.96	$313.66	-$24.31	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 71¢	$241.86	$226.56	-$15.31	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 73.3¢	$158.07	$54.57	+$4.93	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 72.2¢	$40.42	$40.88	+$0.46	40% 80-118 (198)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 78¢	$15.62	$14.62	-$1	41% 562-806 (1368)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$39.13	$13.55	-$25.58	33% 556-1140 (1696)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$20.48	$10.84	-$9.64	56% 4502-3474 (7976)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 76.7¢	$9.97	$9.49	-$0.48	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 84¢	$10.5	$9.13	-$1.38	46% 443-515 (958)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 25.5¢	$14.28	$5.04	-$9.24	47% 1656-1884 (3540)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$337.96

Value

$313.66

PnL

-$24.31

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$241.86

Value

$226.56

PnL

-$15.31

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$158.07

Value

$54.57

PnL

+$4.93

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$40.42

Value

$40.88

PnL

+$0.46

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$15.62

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$1

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.13

Value

$13.55

PnL

-$25.58

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.48

Value

$10.84

PnL

-$9.64

Record

56%

4502-3474 (7976)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$0.48

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$10.5

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$1.38

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.28

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$9.24

Record

47%

1656-1884 (3540)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.