FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$39.02

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 56¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,399

Combined PnL+$169.56

Over4 traders

Total Value$962.34

Total Shares2,174

Combined PnL-$130.54

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$75.16	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.3¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$276.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$680.23	$881.39	+$201.16
ME metski29	Underavg 52.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$139.9	7% 4-50 (54)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$79.57	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$1.0K	$855.45	-$172.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$377.91	$470.79	+$92.88
RN1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$721.66	$662.43	-$59.24	56% 4502-3474 (7976)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$637.73	$296.07	-$70.3	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 40.8¢	$60.33	$82.75	+$22.41	41% 562-806 (1368)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 38.9¢	$17.07	$23.25	+$6.18	33% 539-1115 (1654)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.67	$3.73	+$1.07	36% 209-370 (579)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$8.19	$2.46	-$0.63	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.76	$1.38	-$0.38	44% 405-509 (914)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,873.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$75.16

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

Both legs:

Over$2,193.750.3¢-$276.33

Under$680.2343.2¢+$201.16

metski29

Under

Invested

$1,672.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$139.9

Record

4-50 (54)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,405.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$79.57

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

Over$1,027.952.9¢-$172.45

Under$377.9145¢+$92.88

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$721.66

Value

$662.43

PnL

-$59.24

Record

56%

4502-3474 (7976)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$637.73

Value

$296.07

PnL

-$70.3

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$60.33

Value

$82.75

PnL

+$22.41

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$17.07

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$6.18

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$2.67

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$1.07

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.19

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.63

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.