FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 2.5

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (15%) · Over at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 15%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$177.1

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 76.5¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares6,418

Combined PnL+$165.33

Over2 traders

Total Value$996.66

Total Shares1,180

Combined PnL+$11.77

Under — 85%Over — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 19.6¢	$565.94	$564.84	+$82.52	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 80.3¢	$509.87	$513.36	+$8.77	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80¢	$480.3	$483.31	+$3	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
RN1CTR	Underavg 14.7¢	$305.06	$352.17	+$47.11	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 20.1¢	$199.91	$234.23	+$34.32	33% 558-1111 (1669)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$67.08	$57.44	-$9.64	41% 552-797 (1349)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 19.8¢	$45.15	$53.67	+$8.52	33% 553-1135 (1688)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$60	$51	-$9	41% 66-94 (160)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 18.4¢	$24.97	$31.93	+$6.97	32% 538-1128 (1666)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$21	$25.5	+$4.5	47% 532-590 (1122)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$13.38	$13.78	+$0.39	40% 78-117 (195)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$7.76	$7.05	-$0.71	32% 534-1112 (1646)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 20.4¢	$2.24	$2.59	+$0.34	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$565.94

Value

$564.84

PnL

+$82.52

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$509.87

Value

$513.36

PnL

+$8.77

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$480.3

Value

$483.31

PnL

+$3

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$305.06

Value

$352.17

PnL

+$47.11

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$199.91

Value

$234.23

PnL

+$34.32

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.08

Value

$57.44

PnL

-$9.64

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.15

Value

$53.67

PnL

+$8.52

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60

Value

$51

PnL

-$9

Record

41%

66-94 (160)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.97

Value

$31.93

PnL

+$6.97

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.38

Value

$13.78

PnL

+$0.39

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.71

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.