FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 1.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 93¢ · $725 held · ended Nov 12

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$725.34

Combined PnL

-$8.91

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 92.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$161.34

Total Shares174

Combined PnL-$8.43

Under8 traders

Total Value$24.89

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$0.47

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-63 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 93.8¢	$409.9	$411.42	+$3.83	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
└ Over leg	Overavg 93.8¢	$265.69	$262.1	-$3.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 7.1¢	$142.07	$149.32	+$7.42
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 96.4¢	$131.94	$127.69	-$4.25	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ Over leg	Overavg 96.4¢	$105.99	$101.74	-$4.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 7.5¢	$25.95	$25.95	+$0
38 38791873984189	Overavg 93.3¢	$598.18	$115.09	-$6.68	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 96¢	$48	$46.25	-$1.75	53% 6205-5498 (11703)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$7.27	$6.82	-$0.45	33% 556-1140 (1696)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$6.6	$5.5	-$1.1	34% 564-1115 (1679)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 7.5¢	$4.7	$4.69	-$0.01	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 5.7¢	$3.02	$3.97	+$0.95	33% 539-1115 (1654)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 7.4¢	$2.14	$2.18	+$0.04	46% 443-515 (958)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.75	$0.8	+$0.05	41% 562-806 (1368)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$0.56	$0.52	-$0.03	32% 542-1133 (1675)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.33	$0.41	+$0.08	40% 68-100 (168)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$409.9

Value

$411.42

PnL

+$3.83

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

Both legs:

Over$265.6993.8¢-$3.59

Under$142.077.1¢+$7.42

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$131.94

Value

$127.69

PnL

-$4.25

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

Over$105.9996.4¢-$4.25

Under$25.957.5¢+$0

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$598.18

Value

$115.09

PnL

-$6.68

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

53%

6205-5498 (11703)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.27

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.45

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$1.1

Record

34%

564-1115 (1679)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.95

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.03

Record

32%

542-1133 (1675)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.08

Record

40%

68-100 (168)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-63 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.