FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: O/U 0.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$5.31

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL-$3.29

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.4

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$2.03

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 98.4¢	$736.83	$732.88	-$3.95	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97.9¢	$195.79	$197.04	+$1.25	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 98.5¢	$86.52	$85.71	-$0.81	41% 552-797 (1349)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 98.1¢	$23.54	$23.74	+$0.19	40% 78-117 (195)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 98.6¢	$19.85	$19.73	-$0.12	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 98¢	$16.2	$16.35	+$0.15	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 1.3¢	$5.42	$4.6	-$0.82	33% 553-1135 (1688)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 1.7¢	$2.97	$1.92	-$1.05	32% 538-1128 (1666)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 1.3¢	$1.04	$0.88	-$0.16	32% 534-1112 (1646)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$736.83

Value

$732.88

PnL

-$3.95

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$195.79

Value

$197.04

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$86.52

Value

$85.71

PnL

-$0.81

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$23.54

Value

$23.74

PnL

+$0.19

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$19.85

Value

$19.73

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.42

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.82

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.97

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$1.05

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.16

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.