Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal WFC (38%) · Arsenal WFC at 77¢ · $283 held · ends Nov 12

FC Barcelona24¢Arsenal WFC76¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arsenal WFC

Consensus Traders

Arsenal WFC 38%

Total Value

$282.74

Combined PnL

$7.08

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 76.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralArsenal WFC at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arsenal WFC

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FC Barcelona24%

Arsenal WFC77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arsenal WFC3 traders

Total Value$246.75

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$12.3

FC Barcelona5 traders

Total Value$36

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$5.21

Arsenal WFC — 38%FC Barcelona — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal WFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFC Barcelona 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000FC Barcelona 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Arsenal WFCavg 71.5¢	$204.25	$166.61	+$13.34	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Arsenal WFCavg 77.6¢	$75.23	$74.16	-$1.08	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 27¢	$26.7	$21.75	-$4.94	46% 433-502 (935)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 24¢	$7.11	$6.67	-$0.44	33% 544-1092 (1636)
SE sentrio<$100	Arsenal WFCavg 75¢	$5.95	$5.98	+$0.03	41% 533-763 (1296)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 22¢	$4.7	$5.02	+$0.32	32% 528-1110 (1638)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 22¢	$1.22	$1.3	+$0.08	50% 1206-1230 (2436)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 26¢	$1.48	$1.26	-$0.23	47% 1493-1672 (3165)

Flaznorp

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$204.25

Value

$166.61

PnL

+$13.34

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$75.23

Value

$74.16

PnL

-$1.08

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$26.7

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$4.94

Record

46%

433-502 (935)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$7.11

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$0.44

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

sentrio<$100

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

VenusianCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.32

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

suntoriCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

Research grade

NeutralArsenal WFC at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arsenal WFC

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal WFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFC Barcelona 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000FC Barcelona 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arsenal WFC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.