Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal WFC (67%) · Arsenal WFC at 61¢ · $924 held · ends Nov 12

FC Barcelona40¢Arsenal WFC60¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arsenal WFC

Consensus Traders

Arsenal WFC 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$923.5

Combined PnL

$1.23

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 60.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralArsenal WFC at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arsenal WFC

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FC Barcelona40%

Arsenal WFC61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arsenal WFC4 traders

Total Value$288.83

Total Shares476

Combined PnL+$0.16

FC Barcelona2 traders

Total Value$98.62

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$1.07

Arsenal WFC — 67%FC Barcelona — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal WFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArsenal WFC 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedArsenal WFC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arsenal WFC 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 41.1¢	$454.08	$443	-$11.08	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 41.1¢	$296.12	$281.22	-$14.9
└ Arsenal WFC leg	Arsenal WFCavg 59.6¢	$157.96	$161.78	+$3.82
VeryLucky888	Arsenal WFCavg 60.2¢	$120.89	$121.6	+$0.71	52% 754-704 (1458)
SE sentrioARB<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 41¢	$95.52	$93.06	-$2.47	41% 543-780 (1323)
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 41¢	$63.86	$60.82	-$3.05
└ Arsenal WFC leg	Arsenal WFCavg 59.9¢	$31.66	$32.24	+$0.58
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 39¢	$91.58	$92.75	+$1.17	32% 536-1124 (1660)
38 38791873984189<$100	Arsenal WFCavg 61¢	$91.5	$90.75	-$0.75	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Arsenal WFCavg 60.8¢	$67.09	$66.72	-$0.36	52% 184-170 (354)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Arsenal WFCavg 57.5¢	$9.2	$9.76	+$0.56	39% 74-117 (191)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 40¢	$10.97	$5.87	-$0.1	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

FlaznorpARB<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$454.08

Value

$443

PnL

-$11.08

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Both legs:

FC Barcelona$296.1241.1¢-$14.9

Arsenal WFC$157.9659.6¢+$3.82

VeryLucky888

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$120.89

Value

$121.6

PnL

+$0.71

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

sentrioARB<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$95.52

Value

$93.06

PnL

-$2.47

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

Both legs:

FC Barcelona$63.8641¢-$3.05

Arsenal WFC$31.6659.9¢+$0.58

VenusianCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$91.58

Value

$92.75

PnL

+$1.17

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

38791873984189<$100

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$91.5

Value

$90.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$67.09

Value

$66.72

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

184-170 (354)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Arsenal WFC

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$0.56

Record

39%

74-117 (191)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$10.97

Value

$5.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

NeutralArsenal WFC at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arsenal WFC

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Arsenal WFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArsenal WFC 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedArsenal WFC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Arsenal WFC 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arsenal WFC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.