Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Arsenal WFC, while the market favors FC Barcelona (55%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Arsenal WFC (50%) · Arsenal WFC at 45¢ · $619 held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
Arsenal WFC
2
Arsenal WFC 50%
2 arb excluded
$619.14
$1.18
Research grade
NeutralArsenal WFC at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FC Barcelona 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Arsenal WFCavg 44.3¢ | $360.32 | $357.7 | -$2.62 | 50% 1318-1340 (2658) |
| └ Arsenal WFC leg | Arsenal WFCavg 44.3¢ | $185.34 | $186.08 | +$0.74 | |
| └ FC Barcelona leg | FC Barcelonaavg 56.6¢ | $174.97 | $171.62 | -$3.35 | |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Arsenal WFCavg 44¢ | $162.5 | $163.53 | +$1.03 | 34% 151-298 (449) |
| └ Arsenal WFC leg | Arsenal WFCavg 44¢ | $124.18 | $125.55 | +$1.37 | |
| └ FC Barcelona leg | FC Barcelonaavg 56¢ | $38.32 | $37.98 | -$0.34 | |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Arsenal WFCavg 43¢ | $57.14 | $59.18 | +$2.04 | 11% 11-92 (103) |
SE sentrio<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 56.8¢ | $39.58 | $38.72 | -$0.86 | 27% 137-362 (499) |
Invested
$360.32
Value
$357.7
PnL
-$2.62
Record
50%
1318-1340 (2658)
Both legs:
Invested
$162.5
Value
$163.53
PnL
+$1.03
Record
34%
151-298 (449)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.14
Value
$59.18
PnL
+$2.04
Record
11%
11-92 (103)
Invested
$39.58
Value
$38.72
PnL
-$0.86
Record
27%
137-362 (499)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.