FC Barcelona leading at halftime?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$1.7K
$581.75
45.3¢ → 95¢
+110% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 40.8¢ | $335.52 | $770.14 | +$434.62 | 55% 1658-1365 (3023) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52¢ | $640.16 | $699.74 | +$59.59 | 51% 2572-2488 (5060) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $30.3 | $77.81 | +$47.5 | 36% 209-370 (579) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $14.01 | $35.02 | +$21.01 | 41% 562-806 (1368) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $24.83 | $32.66 | +$7.83 | 33% 539-1115 (1654) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $20.77 | $22.35 | +$1.58 | 33% 556-1140 (1696) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $4.56 | $11.4 | +$6.84 | 40% 80-118 (198) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $11.97 | $5.71 | +$2.79 | 49% 1260-1292 (2552) |
Invested
$335.52
Value
$770.14
PnL
+$434.62
Record
55%
1658-1365 (3023)
Invested
$640.16
Value
$699.74
PnL
+$59.59
Record
51%
2572-2488 (5060)
Invested
$30.3
Value
$77.81
PnL
+$47.5
Record
36%
209-370 (579)
Invested
$14.01
Value
$35.02
PnL
+$21.01
Record
41%
562-806 (1368)
Invested
$24.83
Value
$32.66
PnL
+$7.83
Record
33%
539-1115 (1654)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$22.35
PnL
+$1.58
Record
33%
556-1140 (1696)
Invested
$4.56
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$6.84
Record
40%
80-118 (198)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$2.79
Record
49%
1260-1292 (2552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.