Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Arsenal WFC leading at halftime?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$741.8

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,285

Combined PnL+$307.28

Yes5 traders

Total Value$883.09

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$434.51

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 47.5¢	$578.51	$889.67	+$311.15	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 47.9¢	$391.05	$815.7	+$424.65	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
0X 0x4Acb370B2008Dfae9c6CDc1D75ff5D07d87Bddd3-1764834413182CTR	Noavg 88¢	$260.32	$264.76	+$4.44	— 5-3 (8)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 90¢	$49.5	$49.23	-$0.27	33% 558-1111 (1669)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$26.87	$23.52	-$3.36	46% 440-515 (955)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 39.1¢	$8.35	$21.34	+$12.99	32% 534-1112 (1646)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$15.98	$16.5	+$0.52	41% 552-797 (1349)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$6.32	$6.03	-$0.29	33% 553-1135 (1688)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$9.24	$1.21	-$8.03	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$578.51

Value

$889.67

PnL

+$311.15

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$391.05

Value

$815.7

PnL

+$424.65

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

0x4Acb370B2008Dfae9c6CDc1D75ff5D07d87Bddd3-1764834413182CTR

Invested

$260.32

Value

$264.76

PnL

+$4.44

Record

—

5-3 (8)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$49.23

PnL

-$0.27

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.87

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$3.36

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.35

Value

$21.34

PnL

+$12.99

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.98

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.52

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.32

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.29

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$8.03

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.