Will FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $464 held · ends Nov 12

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$464.01

Combined PnL

-$18.73

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 88.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$425.5

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$1.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$38.51

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$20.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 88.6¢	$263.32	$266.13	+$2.81	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 89¢	$87.34	$87.84	+$0.49	40% 438-657 (1095)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 90¢	$69.08	$67.16	-$1.92	31% 441-967 (1408)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$20	$19.09	-$0.91	55% 1616-1311 (2927)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$35.5	$17.2	-$18.3	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.38	-$0.03	49% 973-998 (1971)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$1.9	$1.22	-$0.68	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.2	$1	-$0.2	52% 597-541 (1138)

Flaznorp

Invested

$263.32

Value

$266.13

PnL

+$2.81

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$87.34

Value

$87.84

PnL

+$0.49

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$69.08

Value

$67.16

PnL

-$1.92

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$0.91

Record

55%

1616-1311 (2927)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.5

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$18.3

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.68

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.