Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 40¢ · $380 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$380.21
$5.36
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $200.01 | $195.6 | -$4.41 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $101.35 | $103.57 | +$2.22 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.9¢ | $98.66 | $92.03 | -$6.63 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $177.92 | $95.85 | +$5.71 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $39.33 | $38.84 | -$0.49 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $19.98 | $20.47 | +$0.49 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $19.05 | $19.8 | +$0.75 | 40% 77-117 (194) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $5.81 | $5.15 | -$0.66 | 33% 558-1109 (1667) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $15.59 | $2.55 | -$0.24 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.95 | -$0.2 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
Invested
$200.01
Value
$195.6
PnL
-$4.41
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$177.92
Value
$95.85
PnL
+$5.71
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
Invested
$39.33
Value
$38.84
PnL
-$0.49
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$0.49
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
Invested
$19.05
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.75
Record
40%
77-117 (194)
Invested
$5.81
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.66
Record
33%
558-1109 (1667)
Invested
$15.59
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.24
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.2
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.