Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-11-12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $686 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$686.38
-$4.37
92.1¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.4¢ | $315.16 | $312.99 | -$2.17 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93¢ | $244.8 | $243.49 | -$1.32 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $55.42 | $55.02 | -$0.4 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $37.35 | $36.93 | -$0.42 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.78 | $27.63 | -$0.15 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $9.3 | $9.25 | -$0.05 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9.06 | $1.07 | +$0.13 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
Invested
$315.16
Value
$312.99
PnL
-$2.17
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$244.8
Value
$243.49
PnL
-$1.32
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$55.42
Value
$55.02
PnL
-$0.4
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$37.35
Value
$36.93
PnL
-$0.42
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$27.78
Value
$27.63
PnL
-$0.15
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.06
Value
$1.07
PnL
+$0.13
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.