BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $801 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$801.04
$13.23
82.3¢ → 99.5¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Underavg 80¢ | $464.8 | $578.1 | +$113.3 | 42% 200-281 (481) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 88.9¢ | $186.12 | $191.8 | +$5.68 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 85.4¢ | $15.02 | $17.32 | +$2.3 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 20¢ | $116.2 | $7.55 | -$108.65 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $5.67 | $6.27 | +$0.6 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
dips.Invested
$464.8
Value
$578.1
PnL
+$113.3
Record
42%
200-281 (481)
Invested
$186.12
Value
$191.8
PnL
+$5.68
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$17.32
PnL
+$2.3
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$116.2
Value
$7.55
PnL
-$108.65
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$6.27
PnL
+$0.6
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.