BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 56¢ · $371 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 33%
1 arb excluded
$370.74
-$2.49
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 57¢ | $143.16 | $140.65 | -$2.51 | 34% 164-316 (480) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $108.73 | $108.78 | +$0.05 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56¢ | $64.23 | $64.23 | +$0 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $44.5 | $44.55 | +$0.05 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $108 | $108 | +$0 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $13.3 | $13.32 | +$0.02 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
Invested
$143.16
Value
$140.65
PnL
-$2.51
Record
34%
164-316 (480)
Invested
$108.73
Value
$108.78
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Both legs:
Invested
$108
Value
$108
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$13.3
Value
$13.32
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.