BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 77¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$724.52

Smart Money Entry

35.1¢ → 77¢

+120% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,272

Combined PnL+$841.55

Over4 traders

Total Value$205.99

Total Shares598

Combined PnL-$117.03

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 52.6¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$164.09	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.1¢	$744.52	$1.2K	+$492.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.6¢	$766.13	$437.23	-$328.9
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 69.7¢	$1.0K	$817.91	-$227.94	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$374.94	$577.23	+$202.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 69.7¢	$670.91	$240.68	-$430.23
VE Venusian	Underavg 30.1¢	$274.08	$660.46	+$386.38	25% 216-657 (873)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 42.4¢	$356.21	$608.65	+$252.43	25% 218-637 (855)
LI Limousin	Underavg 32.2¢	$123.6	$278.2	+$154.6	25% 217-656 (873)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$203	$143.79	-$59.21	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 67.8¢	$89.11	$44.68	-$44.43	42% 200-281 (481)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 30¢	$14.67	$32.28	+$17.61	44% 79-102 (181)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 33¢	$15.2	$30.38	+$15.18	49% 235-240 (475)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 30¢	$12	$26.4	+$14.4	25% 218-645 (863)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$25.8	$12.51	-$13.29	31% 170-384 (554)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$5.1	$5	-$0.1	50% 157-160 (317)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 35¢	$1.08	$2.03	+$0.95	47% 148-167 (315)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,510.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$164.09

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Both legs:

Under$744.5242.1¢+$492.99

Over$766.1352.6¢-$328.9

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,045.85

Value

$817.91

PnL

-$227.94

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Both legs:

Under$374.9448.7¢+$202.29

Over$670.9169.7¢-$430.23

Venusian

Under

Invested

$274.08

Value

$660.46

PnL

+$386.38

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$356.21

Value

$608.65

PnL

+$252.43

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$123.6

Value

$278.2

PnL

+$154.6

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$203

Value

$143.79

PnL

-$59.21

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.11

Value

$44.68

PnL

-$44.43

Record

42%

200-281 (481)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$14.67

Value

$32.28

PnL

+$17.61

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$15.2

Value

$30.38

PnL

+$15.18

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$14.4

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.8

Value

$12.51

PnL

-$13.29

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

157-160 (317)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.95

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.