Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 11¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$798.55

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 11¢

-75% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,059

Combined PnL+$16.28

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,867

Combined PnL+$782.27

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 44.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$16.32	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 43.8¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$599.14	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$579.95	$1.0K	+$420.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.8¢	$1.4K	$362.66	$-1.0K
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 54.7¢	$957.59	$884.43	+$61.83	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
LI Limousin	Underavg 13.9¢	$137.09	$643.37	+$506.28	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 25.9¢	$67.36	$183.41	+$116.05	25% 218-645 (863)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 32¢	$83.57	$126.64	+$43.07	25% 218-637 (855)
SE sentrio	Underavg 30¢	$83.12	$110.94	+$27.82	31% 170-384 (554)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$16.76	$24.18	+$7.42	47% 148-167 (315)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 36.3¢	$19.14	$24.02	+$4.88	25% 216-657 (873)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 10¢	$2.71	$17.62	+$14.91	22% 123-426 (549)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$1.09	$1.05	-$0.04	44% 79-102 (181)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,989.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$16.32

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,962.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$599.14

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

Both legs:

Under$579.9551.3¢+$420.35

Over$1,382.1543.8¢$-1.0K

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$957.59

Value

$884.43

PnL

+$61.83

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$137.09

Value

$643.37

PnL

+$506.28

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$67.36

Value

$183.41

PnL

+$116.05

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$83.57

Value

$126.64

PnL

+$43.07

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$83.12

Value

$110.94

PnL

+$27.82

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$16.76

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$7.42

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$19.14

Value

$24.02

PnL

+$4.88

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$2.71

Value

$17.62

PnL

+$14.91

Record

22%

123-426 (549)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.04

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.