Spread: Chelsea FC (-3.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold BK Häcken FF (75%) · BK Häcken FF at 89¢ · $794 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
BK Häcken FF
4
BK Häcken FF 75%
1 arb excluded
$793.64
$75.71
76.6¢ → 89¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBK Häcken FF at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+35 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on BK Häcken FF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | BK Häcken FFavg 76.7¢ | $444.44 | $517.41 | +$72.97 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | BK Häcken FFavg 76¢ | $72.81 | $128.45 | +$55.63 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
| └ Chelsea FC leg | Chelsea FCavg 7¢ | $31.11 | $84 | +$52.89 | |
| └ BK Häcken FF leg | BK Häcken FFavg 76¢ | $41.7 | $44.44 | +$2.74 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | BK Häcken FFavg 76.1¢ | $109.78 | $115.44 | +$5.66 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrio<$100 | BK Häcken FFavg 77.7¢ | $30.46 | $30.94 | +$0.48 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 24¢ | $4.8 | $1.4 | -$3.4 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
Invested
$444.44
Value
$517.41
PnL
+$72.97
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$72.81
Value
$128.45
PnL
+$55.63
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.78
Value
$115.44
PnL
+$5.66
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$30.46
Value
$30.94
PnL
+$0.48
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$3.4
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.