Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold BK Häcken FF (40%) · BK Häcken FF at 64¢ · $889 held · ends Nov 10

Chelsea FC37¢BK Häcken FF63¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BK Häcken FF

Consensus Traders

BK Häcken FF 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$889.05

Combined PnL

$1.34

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 63.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBK Häcken FF at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BK Häcken FF

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chelsea FC37%

BK Häcken FF64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BK Häcken FF2 traders

Total Value$466.32

Total Shares729

Combined PnL-$0

Chelsea FC3 traders

Total Value$65.57

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$1.34

BK Häcken FF — 40%Chelsea FC — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on BK Häcken FF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on BK Häcken FF) and the top 1000 (4 on Chelsea FC) disagree here.

ctrBK Häcken FF 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBK Häcken FF 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chelsea FC 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	BK Häcken FFavg 64¢	$364.11	$364.11	+$0	34% 158-308 (466)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Chelsea FCavg 35.8¢	$359.22	$357.15	-$2.07	50% 1362-1381 (2743)
└ Chelsea FC leg	Chelsea FCavg 35.8¢	$290.5	$284.23	-$6.27
└ BK Häcken FF leg	BK Häcken FFavg 60.3¢	$68.72	$72.92	+$4.2
VeryLucky888	BK Häcken FFavg 64¢	$102.21	$102.21	-$0	47% 197-220 (417)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 35.9¢	$63.05	$64.4	+$1.35	28% 148-373 (521)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 35¢	$0.59	$0.62	+$0.03	56% 1515-1167 (2682)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Chelsea FCavg 37¢	$0.59	$0.56	-$0.03	47% 145-163 (308)

omnibus-076daa

BK Häcken FF

Invested

$364.11

Value

$364.11

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

158-308 (466)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$359.22

Value

$357.15

PnL

-$2.07

Record

50%

1362-1381 (2743)

Both legs:

Chelsea FC$290.535.8¢-$6.27

BK Häcken FF$68.7260.3¢+$4.2

VeryLucky888

BK Häcken FF

Invested

$102.21

Value

$102.21

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

197-220 (417)

sentrioCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$63.05

Value

$64.4

PnL

+$1.35

Record

28%

148-373 (521)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

1515-1167 (2682)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Chelsea FC

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

145-163 (308)

Research grade

NeutralBK Häcken FF at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BK Häcken FF

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on BK Häcken FF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on BK Häcken FF) and the top 1000 (4 on Chelsea FC) disagree here.

ctrBK Häcken FF 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBK Häcken FF 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chelsea FC 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BK Häcken FF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.