Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (33%) · Chelsea FC at 59¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
Chelsea FC
3
Chelsea FC 33%
1 arb excluded
$314.02
$0.1
Research grade
NeutralChelsea FC at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | BK Häcken FFavg 40¢ | $170.14 | $174.37 | +$4.23 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
| └ BK Häcken FF leg | BK Häcken FFavg 40¢ | $122.3 | $125.45 | +$3.15 | |
| └ Chelsea FC leg | Chelsea FCavg 57.7¢ | $47.84 | $48.92 | +$1.08 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Chelsea FCavg 59¢ | $118.6 | $118.6 | -$0 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | BK Häcken FFavg 41¢ | $17.69 | $17.69 | +$0 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | BK Häcken FFavg 39.8¢ | $3.26 | $3.36 | +$0.1 | 34% 161-313 (474) |
Invested
$170.14
Value
$174.37
PnL
+$4.23
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.6
Value
$118.6
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$17.69
Value
$17.69
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
Invested
$3.26
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.1
Record
34%
161-313 (474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.