Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: Draw at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 0.1¢ · $309 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$308.84
-$109.43
51.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 47¢ | $206.91 | $259.7 | +$52.79 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 51.2¢ | $107.93 | $25.29 | -$82.64 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 52.6¢ | $100.47 | $22.9 | -$77.57 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.15 | $0.63 | -$1.52 | 25% 220-643 (863) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $0.81 | $0.33 | -$0.49 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
Invested
$206.91
Value
$259.7
PnL
+$52.79
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
RN1CTRInvested
$107.93
Value
$25.29
PnL
-$82.64
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Invested
$100.47
Value
$22.9
PnL
-$77.57
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$1.52
Record
25%
220-643 (863)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.49
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.