Chelsea FC leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$4.9K
$1.0K
51.6¢ → 99.5¢
+93% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 53.8¢ | $1.3K | $2.4K | +$1.1K | 25% 213-654 (867) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 44.9¢ | $454.07 | $1.0K | +$551.19 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $925.74 | $672.92 | -$252.82 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $701.52 | $373.15 | -$328.38 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.1¢ | $224.21 | $299.77 | +$75.56 | |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $1.1K | $399.56 | -$682.87 | 58% 3757-2710 (6467) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $213.53 | $253.6 | +$40.06 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $142.8 | $186 | +$43.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.1¢ | $70.74 | $67.6 | -$3.14 | |
VE Venusian | Noavg 60.6¢ | $132.75 | $217.91 | +$85.16 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $8.31 | $8.44 | +$0.12 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $1.89 | $0.03 | -$1.86 | 25% 214-643 (857) |
Invested
$1,281.56
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$454.07
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$551.19
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$925.74
Value
$672.92
PnL
-$252.82
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$1,082.43
Value
$399.56
PnL
-$682.87
Record
58%
3757-2710 (6467)
Invested
$213.53
Value
$253.6
PnL
+$40.06
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.75
Value
$217.91
PnL
+$85.16
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
Invested
$8.31
Value
$8.44
PnL
+$0.12
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.86
Record
25%
214-643 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.