Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 2 - 2 Chelsea FC?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $321 held · ends Nov 10

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$320.86

Combined PnL

$0.03

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$316.98

Total Shares322

Combined PnL+$0.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.88

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$0.36

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.1¢	$121.26	$121.66	+$0.4	47% 147-167 (314)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 97.1¢	$100.39	$100.35	-$0.04	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$52.76	$52.78	+$0.02	24% 205-642 (847)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$22.67	$22.66	-$0.01	30% 160-377 (537)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$19.5	$19.52	+$0.02	24% 202-637 (839)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$4.24	$3.88	-$0.36	48% 218-232 (450)

SnakeBall

Invested

$121.26

Value

$121.66

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

147-167 (314)

Flaznorp

Invested

$100.39

Value

$100.35

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$52.76

Value

$52.78

PnL

+$0.02

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$22.67

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

160-377 (537)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.