Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 1 - 2 Chelsea FC?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $541 held · ended Nov 10
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$541.15
$10.37
91.7¢ → 93¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.6¢ | $315.33 | $323.12 | +$7.79 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 92¢ | $182.5 | $184.48 | +$1.98 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $21.33 | $21.8 | +$0.47 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.61 | $11.74 | +$0.13 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.