Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 1 - 1 Chelsea FC?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $928 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$927.61
-$2.5
94.1¢ → 94.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93.7¢ | $302.52 | $312.29 | +$9.78 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $302.99 | $297.86 | -$5.14 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.9¢ | $252.78 | $254.03 | +$1.25 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $30.05 | $31.32 | +$1.27 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $17.66 | $17.64 | -$0.02 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $24.12 | $14.48 | -$9.65 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
Invested
$302.52
Value
$312.29
PnL
+$9.78
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
VeryLucky888Invested
$302.99
Value
$297.86
PnL
-$5.14
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$252.78
Value
$254.03
PnL
+$1.25
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$30.05
Value
$31.32
PnL
+$1.27
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$17.66
Value
$17.64
PnL
-$0.02
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$24.12
Value
$14.48
PnL
-$9.65
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.