Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 0 - 2 Chelsea FC?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 10

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$207.33

Combined PnL

-$0.14

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$174.73

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$0.32

Yes3 traders

Total Value$32.61

Total Shares254

Combined PnL-$0.46

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$96.21	$96.32	+$0.11	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 87¢	$57.83	$58.04	+$0.21	25% 212-653 (865)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$21.22	$21.22	-$0	49% 231-238 (469)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 87¢	$20.37	$20.37	+$0	31% 169-382 (551)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$10.44	$10.04	-$0.4	25% 214-632 (846)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.4	$1.35	-$0.05	25% 212-653 (865)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$96.21

Value

$96.32

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$57.83

Value

$58.04

PnL

+$0.21

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.22

Value

$21.22

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$20.37

Value

$20.37

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.4

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.