Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 0 - 1 Chelsea FC?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$23.84

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 68.5¢

-23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$852.31

Total Shares1,020

Combined PnL-$86.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$167.42

Total Shares629

Combined PnL+$109.87

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 88.2¢	$673.64	$622.46	-$51.18	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 91.4¢	$157.53	$142.11	-$15.42	25% 218-645 (863)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$42.01	$112.96	+$72.85	49% 235-240 (475)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 92¢	$86.62	$70.61	-$16.01	25% 216-657 (873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$15.73	$49.55	+$33.82	25% 218-637 (855)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 90¢	$20.55	$17.12	-$3.42	25% 217-656 (873)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$0.97	$2.99	+$2.02	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.49	$1.36	+$0.87	44% 79-102 (181)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.25	$0.56	+$0.31	47% 148-167 (315)

Flaznorp

Invested

$673.64

Value

$622.46

PnL

-$51.18

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

LightParadox

Invested

$157.53

Value

$142.11

PnL

-$15.42

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$42.01

Value

$112.96

PnL

+$72.85

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$86.62

Value

$70.61

PnL

-$16.01

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.73

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$33.82

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$20.55

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$3.42

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$2.02

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$1.36

PnL

+$0.87

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.31

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.