Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 0 - 0 Chelsea FC?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 48¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$767.97

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 47.8¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,355

Combined PnL+$937.49

No5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,435

Combined PnL-$169.52

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 30.9¢	$655.29	$1.6K	+$896.64	25% 218-645 (863)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 70.9¢	$1.1K	$903.26	-$181.22	44% 79-102 (181)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 67.5¢	$594.72	$606.34	+$11.63	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$55.88	$92.34	+$36.46	25% 218-637 (855)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$67.55	$24.53	+$1.26	25% 216-657 (873)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$15.39	$19.78	+$4.39	25% 217-656 (873)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$6.44	$5.86	-$0.58	49% 235-240 (475)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$6.36	$5.76	-$0.6	31% 170-384 (554)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$655.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$896.64

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,084.48

Value

$903.26

PnL

-$181.22

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$594.72

Value

$606.34

PnL

+$11.63

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.88

Value

$92.34

PnL

+$36.46

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$67.55

Value

$24.53

PnL

+$1.26

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.39

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$4.39

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.6

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.0%

47.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$100.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

200.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.