Will BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 68¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$526.82

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 68¢

-20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,954

Combined PnL-$207.29

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,342

Combined PnL+$734.11

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 84.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$106.22	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$392.05	$1.0K	+$645.75	25% 218-637 (855)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77.5¢	$331.17	$322.53	-$8.64	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$360	$316	-$44	49% 235-240 (475)
VE Venusian	Noavg 90.5¢	$342.5	$299.02	-$43.48	25% 216-657 (873)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$185.21	$268.07	+$82.86	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$79.08	$78.93	-$0.15	25% 218-645 (863)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.1¢	$43.08	$47.33	+$4.25
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$36	$31.6	-$4.4
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 79¢	$50.97	$50.97	+$0	44% 79-102 (181)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Noavg 89¢	$44.5	$39.5	-$5	64% 155-88 (243)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 87¢	$13.6	$13.65	+$0.05	31% 170-384 (554)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$3.47	$6.74	+$3.28	36% 344-620 (964)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.13	$4.07	+$1.94	37% 198-333 (531)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$2.49	$2.78	+$0.29	58% 3761-2714 (6475)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,457.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$106.22

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$392.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$645.75

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$331.17

Value

$322.53

PnL

-$8.64

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$360

Value

$316

PnL

-$44

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

Venusian

Invested

$342.5

Value

$299.02

PnL

-$43.48

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.21

Value

$268.07

PnL

+$82.86

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.08

Value

$78.93

PnL

-$0.15

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

Both legs:

Yes$43.0819.1¢+$4.25

No$3690¢-$4.4

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$50.97

Value

$50.97

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

suitcase6628<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$5

Record

64%

155-88 (243)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.47

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$3.28

Record

36%

344-620 (964)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$1.94

Record

37%

198-333 (531)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.