Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will BK Häcken FF win on 2026-11-10?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $51 held · ends Nov 10

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$50.95

Combined PnL

$4.69

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$22.5

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0

Yes4 traders

Total Value$28.45

Total Shares438

Combined PnL+$4.69

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 93¢	$14.64	$14.64	+$0	23% 174-599 (773)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$10.38	$11.25	+$1.73	7% 7-88 (95)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93¢	$7.86	$7.86	+$0	23% 176-586 (762)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$5.79	$7.53	+$2.32	46% 124-145 (269)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$7.4	$7.37	+$0.53	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$2.38	$2.31	+$0.11	27% 133-354 (487)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$14.64

Value

$14.64

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.38

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$1.73

Record

7-88 (95)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$7.86

Value

$7.86

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.79

Value

$7.53

PnL

+$2.32

Record

46%

124-145 (269)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.37

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.11

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.