Will Servette FC Chênois Féminin win on 2026-11-10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$174.94
$1.96
92¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $92.28 | $92.28 | +$0 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $38.14 | $39.71 | +$1.57 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $35.36 | $35.36 | -$0 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $18.89 | $2.6 | +$0.39 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
Invested
$92.28
Value
$92.28
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$38.14
Value
$39.71
PnL
+$1.57
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$35.36
Value
$35.36
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.89
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.39
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.