Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-10?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 79¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 10

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$70.09

Combined PnL

-$0

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$67.37

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$0

No2 traders

Total Value$2.72

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$36.21	$36.21	-$0	23% 174-599 (773)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$21	$21	+$0	24% 184-596 (780)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$10.16	$10.16	+$0	23% 176-590 (766)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.67	$1.67	+$0	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.05	-$0	27% 133-354 (487)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.21

Value

$36.21

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$21

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.