US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 57¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 16

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

-$32.02

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 57.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 57%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares27,138

Combined PnL-$298.53

No2 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares21,802

Combined PnL+$266.51

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Yesavg 58.5¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$105.26	57% 857-644 (1501)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 41.1¢	$8.6K	$8.8K	+$286.51	57% 865-664 (1529)
AllByMyseIf	Yesavg 61.9¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$195.48	65% 677-361 (1038)
Car	Yesavg 58¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	67% 4258-2088 (6346)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 61.6¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$44.54	17% 1276-6074 (7350)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.6¢	$722.43	$679.76	-$71.02
└ No leg	Noavg 39.7¢	$465.76	$492.24	+$26.48
Lolakis	Yesavg 59.1¢	$1.8K	$792.78	-$10.51	58% 706-501 (1207)
88 881112ARB<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$707	$742	+$34.5	36% 586-1037 (1623)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$371	$406	+$38.5
└ No leg	Noavg 42¢	$336	$336	-$4
HaradwaithARB<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$918.58	$653.87	+$9.39	41% 6347-9311 (15658)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$503.83	$499.56	-$4.27
└ No leg	Noavg 40¢	$148.73	$154.31	+$13.66
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 42¢	$840	$420	-$20	56% 16076-12809 (28885)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 55¢	$274.98	$289.98	+$15	63% 166-96 (262)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$122.95	$123.33	+$0.38	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.4¢	$61.1	$62.81	+$1.71
└ No leg	Noavg 42.9¢	$61.85	$60.52	-$1.33
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 58.5¢	$164.18	$118.96	-$2.29	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$20	$20	+$0	14% 503-3033 (3536)

classified

Yes

Invested

$9,998.36

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$105.26

Record

57%

857-644 (1501)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$8,554.27

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$286.51

Record

57%

865-664 (1529)

AllByMyseIf

Yes

Invested

$3,095.44

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$195.48

Record

65%

677-361 (1038)

Car

Yes

Invested

$1,740

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

4258-2088 (6346)

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,451.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.54

Record

17%

1276-6074 (7350)

Both legs:

Yes$722.4361.6¢-$71.02

No$465.7639.7¢+$26.48

Lolakis

Yes

Invested

$1,783.35

Value

$792.78

PnL

-$10.51

Record

58%

706-501 (1207)

881112ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$707

Value

$742

PnL

+$34.5

Record

36%

586-1037 (1623)

Both legs:

Invested

$918.58

Value

$653.87

PnL

+$9.39

Record

41%

6347-9311 (15658)

Both legs:

Yes$503.8359¢-$4.27

No$148.7340¢+$13.66

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$840

Value

$420

PnL

-$20

Record

56%

16076-12809 (28885)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$274.98

Value

$289.98

PnL

+$15

Record

63%

166-96 (262)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$122.95

Value

$123.33

PnL

+$0.38

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Both legs:

Invested

$164.18

Value

$118.96

PnL

-$2.29

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 57%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.5%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.