US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 72¢ · $22K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$482.84

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 71.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares24,960

Combined PnL+$614.12

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares15,664

Combined PnL-$131.28

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Noavg 69¢	$15.6K	$16.2K	+$575.45	57% 858-647 (1505)
CarCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$81.79	67% 4313-2145 (6458)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$145	38% 227-364 (591)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 69.6¢	$835.35	$870.37	+$35.03	73% 3014-1098 (4112)
KE kevtp	Noavg 70¢	$350	$355	+$12.5	80% 227-58 (285)
Lolakis	Noavg 71¢	$295.53	$295.53	+$6.24	58% 722-524 (1246)
BloodyMummerCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$300	$280	-$10	77% 583-170 (753)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 69.1¢	$413.97	$96.61	-$15.09	34% 19258-36883 (56141)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$481.48	$56.01	+$106.2	40% 6541-9819 (16360)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.7¢	$37.03	$36.33	-$0.69	58% 21279-15443 (36722)

classified

Invested

$15,643.57

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$575.45

Record

57%

858-647 (1505)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,937.64

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$81.79

Record

67%

4313-2145 (6458)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,570

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$145

Record

38%

227-364 (591)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$835.35

Value

$870.37

PnL

+$35.03

Record

73%

3014-1098 (4112)

kevtp

Invested

$350

Value

$355

PnL

+$12.5

Record

80%

227-58 (285)

Lolakis

Invested

$295.53

Value

$295.53

PnL

+$6.24

Record

58%

722-524 (1246)

BloodyMummerCTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$280

PnL

-$10

Record

77%

583-170 (753)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$413.97

Value

$96.61

PnL

-$15.09

Record

34%

19258-36883 (56141)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$481.48

Value

$56.01

PnL

+$106.2

Record

40%

6541-9819 (16360)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.03

Value

$36.33

PnL

-$0.69

Record

58%

21279-15443 (36722)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.