US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 64¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$4.8K
-$6.4
63.6¢ → 63.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4 | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$1.65 | 62% 26-16 (42) |
 pIebeCTR | Noavg 36.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$6.12 | 62% 916-565 (1481) |
 HoshinoAICTR | Noavg 36¢ | $125.19 | $126.93 | +$1.74 | — |
 CarCTR | Noavg 37.1¢ | $110.27 | $109.33 | -$0.94 | 66% 4490-2317 (6807) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $90.79 | $92.05 | +$1.26 | 57% 41418-31188 (72606) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $56.01 | $30.06 | -$1.7 | 16% 415-2201 (2616) |
88 881112<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $41.02 | $20.38 | +$0.39 | 36% 600-1055 (1655) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.4¢ | $39.41 | $12.49 | +$0.61 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
Invested
$2,885.78
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$1.65
Record
62%
26-16 (42)
pIebeCTRInvested
$1,548.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$6.12
Record
62%
916-565 (1481)
HoshinoAICTRInvested
$125.19
Value
$126.93
PnL
+$1.74
Record
—
CarCTRInvested
$110.27
Value
$109.33
PnL
-$0.94
Record
66%
4490-2317 (6807)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$90.79
Value
$92.05
PnL
+$1.26
Record
57%
41418-31188 (72606)
Invested
$56.01
Value
$30.06
PnL
-$1.7
Record
16%
415-2201 (2616)
Invested
$41.02
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$0.39
Record
36%
600-1055 (1655)
Invested
$39.41
Value
$12.49
PnL
+$0.61
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.