Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire not hold through 2027?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 80¢ · $594 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$593.6

Combined PnL

$356.62

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 80.3¢

+111% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$548.88

Total Shares678

Combined PnL+$376.08

Yes3 traders

Total Value$44.43

Total Shares256

Combined PnL-$19.46

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	Noavg 3.8¢	$15	$297.86	+$290.83	73% 13376-5006 (18382)
Lucerys	Noavg 78.7¢	$308.3	$211.98	+$5.69	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$43.09	$32.57	-$10.53	48% 1661-1794 (3455)
balthazar	Noavg 78¢	$147.28	$24.24	+$78.7	53% 28631-25560 (54191)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$20.25	$11.03	-$9.22	41% 30-43 (73)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$7.74	$8.31	+$0.57	72% 24736-9849 (34585)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$23.16	$6.49	+$0.3	56% 18152-14046 (32198)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$0.54	$0.84	+$0.29	30% 2095-4886 (6981)

e46m3

Invested

$15

Value

$297.86

PnL

+$290.83

Record

73%

13376-5006 (18382)

Lucerys

Invested

$308.3

Value

$211.98

PnL

+$5.69

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.09

Value

$32.57

PnL

-$10.53

Record

48%

1661-1794 (3455)

balthazar

Invested

$147.28

Value

$24.24

PnL

+$78.7

Record

53%

28631-25560 (54191)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.25

Value

$11.03

PnL

-$9.22

Record

41%

30-43 (73)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$7.74

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$0.57

Record

72%

24736-9849 (34585)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$23.16

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

18152-14046 (32198)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.29

Record

30%

2095-4886 (6981)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

80.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.