US imports Russian diesel by November 15?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$621.81
31.1¢ → 63.5¢
+104% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 theta-thunberg | Noavg 30.6¢ | $376.24 | $914.9 | +$538.66 | 56% 425-333 (758) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $353.54 | $349.73 | -$0.92 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33.1¢ | $113.38 | $226.29 | +$112.74 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $236.83 | $123.44 | -$113.66 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 36.6¢ | $110.38 | $160.32 | +$49.94 | 36% 15244-27336 (42580) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 24.3¢ | $24.86 | $65.1 | +$40.24 | 42% 5206-7139 (12345) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $11.52 | $11.68 | +$0.16 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $13.4 | $7.2 | -$7.2 | 56% 1199-950 (2149) |
theta-thunbergInvested
$376.24
Value
$914.9
PnL
+$538.66
Record
56%
425-333 (758)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$353.54
Value
$349.73
PnL
-$0.92
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.38
Value
$160.32
PnL
+$49.94
Record
36%
15244-27336 (42580)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$65.1
PnL
+$40.24
Record
42%
5206-7139 (12345)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$11.68
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
6458-5657 (12115)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$13.4
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$7.2
Record
56%
1199-950 (2149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.