US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
$151.48
84.5¢ → 96.2¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4841h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 83¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$169.54 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $95.5 | $95.15 | +$0.85 | 91% 917-94 (1011) |
 allenzzz<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $92.46 | $93.59 | +$2.07 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $140.86 | $20.55 | -$20.63 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $0.51 | $0.17 | -$0.34 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$1,066.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$169.54
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Talophex<$100Invested
$95.5
Value
$95.15
PnL
+$0.85
Record
91%
917-94 (1011)
allenzzz<$100Invested
$92.46
Value
$93.59
PnL
+$2.07
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
Invested
$140.86
Value
$20.55
PnL
-$20.63
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.34
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.