Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes81¢No19¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$33.39

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 81¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$834.15

Total Shares966

Combined PnL-$31.65

No6 traders

Total Value$67.75

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$1.74

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 81¢	$824.72	$791.58	-$33.14	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 81.1¢	$497.37	$520.11	+$22.74	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.6¢	$229.5	$264.1	+$34.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.1¢	$267.87	$256.01	-$11.87
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$76.2	$52.6	+$0.74	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$32	$33	+$1	55% 547-442 (989)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$7.18	$7.56	+$0.37	15% 62-342 (404)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$5.62	$5.15	-$0.47	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$12.13	$4.37	-$3.01	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$2.15	$3.27	+$1.12	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$2.26	$2.13	-$0.13	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$1.89	$2.01	+$0.12	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.22	$0.23	+$0.01	35% 520-947 (1467)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$824.72

Value

$791.58

PnL

-$33.14

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$497.37

Value

$520.11

PnL

+$22.74

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Both legs:

No$229.519.6¢+$34.61

Yes$267.8781.1¢-$11.87

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$76.2

Value

$52.6

PnL

+$0.74

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$33

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.37

Record

15%

62-342 (404)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.47

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$12.13

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$3.01

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$1.12

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.